In its newly released forecast, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) saidinternational freight volumes were expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 4.1% between 2014 and 2018.
That would be a marked improvement over recent years. Since 2011, growth in freight tonnes has averaged just 0.63% per year.
This year, more than US$6.8 trillion worth of goods, equal to 35% of total global trade by value, will be transported worldwide by air.
Despite the positive outlook, IATA director-general Tony Tyler has warned of the overall risk to the economic outlook, and therefore the outlook for air freight remains towards the downside.
Trade protectionism is a constant danger. The World Trade Organization said that between November 2013 and May 2014 alone, 112 new trade-restrictive measures were enacted by G20 governments.
“Geopolitical concerns, volatile oil prices and competition from rail and sea could also affect the forecast. The air cargo industry certainly cannot afford to be complacent,” said Mr Tyler.
To enhance air cargo competitiveness, the industry plans to cut average transit times by up to 48 hours by 2020.
Emerging economies, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, will be the fastest-growing markets for air freight movements, said the global industry body, which represents 230 international airlines.
The US, UAE and China will each add more than 1 million additional tonnes of freight by 2018 compared with today, with the UAE replacing Germany as the third-largest market.
The fastest-growing international routes will be between the Middle East and the rest of Asia, with growth of 6.2% per year.
Significant volume imbalances will continue. The imbalance in flows from Asia to North America is estimated to hit 1.1 million tonnes by 2018, while from Asia to the Middle East the imbalance will be 600,000 tonnes.
Fonte: AviationPros
27/10/2014
Foto: Victoria Air/divulgação
